The recent admission by a former top Russian official that the country is moving beyond Putin's leadership and can envision a future without him marks a significant shift in the nation's political landscape. This revelation comes amidst a backdrop of mounting costs associated with the war in Ukraine, including high inflation, crumbling infrastructure, and tightened censorship. The official's op-ed in The Economist highlights a subtle yet powerful change in the way Russia's elites are now describing Putin's actions, no longer using the collective 'we' but instead opting for the singular 'he'. This shift is not merely a linguistic change but a reflection of a growing sentiment among the elite that Putin's leadership has led the country to a dead end.
The former official's analysis underscores the irony of Putin's initial motivation for starting the war - to preserve power and the system he has created. However, the mounting costs and the regime's inability to provide a narrative of national restoration or modernization have led to a growing sense of disillusionment. The state's control over key levers of repression and fear, while still present, is no longer as effective as it once was. This is evident in the falling approval ratings of Putin, with a survey from Russia's state-owned pollster showing a decline from 77.8% to 65.6% in his approval rate.
One of the key factors contributing to this shift is the pushback from Russian elites, who have been banned from living abroad and have lost the protection of Western laws that once preserved their wealth. The state has seized around $60 billion in assets from private businessmen over the past three years, either nationalizing their property or redistributing it to cronies. This has led to a growing desire for rules and institutions that can resolve conflicts fairly, even among those loyal to the regime. As the rules-based global order fades, Russia is losing its ability to game the system by exploiting institutions like the United Nations Security Council, creating an identity crisis.
The collapse of Russia's previous social contract, which allowed citizens to enjoy private lives as long as they stayed out of politics, has also contributed to the growing sense of disillusionment. Instead of providing convenience, services, and consumption, the regime now inflicts repression, intrusion, and censorship. The Kremlin's internet blackouts, aimed at limiting information on economic woes and soaring casualties in Ukraine, have raised howls of protest among ordinary Russians. Putin's retreat into a bunker, spending more time micromanaging the war and paranoid about a coup or assassination attempt, further underscores the regime's internal turmoil.
In conclusion, the former official's admission that Russia can envision a future without Putin is a significant indicator of the nation's growing disillusionment with the current leadership. The mounting costs of the war, the regime's inability to provide a narrative of national restoration, and the pushback from elites have all contributed to this shift. As the rules-based global order fades and Russia loses its foil in the West, the country is facing an identity crisis. The future of Russia remains uncertain, but the current trajectory suggests a growing desire for change and a move away from the leadership of Vladimir Putin.
